26 enero 2010

ARTICULO PERIODISTICO: CRISIS Y NEGOCIACION COLECTIVA.

Estimados compañera y compañeros.

Aquí os dejamos otro artículo bastante interesante a juicio de esta sección sindical, en un serio y riguroso análisis sobre la actual crisis económica, sobre el valor, desarrollo y compatibilidad de las subidas salariales y sobre la necesidad del dialogo social cómo instrumento de salida eficaz de la misma. Cómo siempre, un punto de vista diferente a las tesis oficiales y que ayuda a la calidad y claridad del debate y a la pluralidad de ideas que tanto defendemos desde aquí.

El artículo se titula CRISIS Y NEGOCIACION COLECTIVA, está firmado por Don Antonio Ferrer Sais, secretario de Acción sindical de UGT, y fue publicado en el Diario EL PAIS, en su edición del 24 de Enero, en su dominical de Negocios, en la sección de Economía Global, aquí os dejamos el artículo y el enlace: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/global/Crisis/negociacion/colectiva/elpepueconeg/20100124elpnegeco_8/Tes


CRISIS Y NEGOCIACIÓN COLECTIVA:

La crisis financiera ha puesto fin al modelo de crecimiento de la demanda estimulada mediante el endeudamiento del sector privado. Ese modelo, dominante desde el triunfo de las políticas neoliberales en los años ochenta, se caracteriza básicamente por la caída de la parte salarial en el PIB.

La sistemática deformación de la distribución de la renta a favor de los beneficios ha ido privando a la inmensa mayoría de los trabajadores de su justa participación en el progreso económico. Las rentas económicas generadas por ese proceso han beneficiado a una reducida élite de accionistas, directivos y ejecutivos empresariales. Para compensar las pérdidas de la dinámica salarial, la demanda y la actividad económica se han estado sosteniendo en el creciente endeudamiento de los hogares y en la formación de burbujas especulativas. Esto explicaría por qué la recesión actual no se reduce a la crisis de los mercados financieros: es también la crisis de un modelo de crecimiento sustentado en las desigualdades. La ruptura del mecanismo que sostenía el crecimiento ha desencadenado una dinámica de ahorro y caída de la inversión de los agentes económicos privados, agravada por las restricciones de acceso al crédito que ha hundido la demanda interior: ha desaparecido la parte de la demanda que antes de la crisis se financiaba aumentando el grado de endeudamiento privado.

La economía española previsiblemente seguirá sumida en la recesión y la tasa de paro no tocará techo hasta 2011. La contracción de la actividad económica será más prolongada que en la mayoría de los países europeos donde, contrariamente a lo sucedido aquí, el consumo de los hogares ha caído a menor ritmo que el PIB probablemente porque el brutal ajuste del empleo, la temporalidad, la debilidad de los salarios y las presiones en la negociación colectiva lastran la recuperación de la demanda privada en España, a pesar del volumen de recursos activados por las políticas públicas y de la coyuntura favorable de los precios del petróleo.

La repercusión de la recesión en el empleo ha sido extremadamente virulenta. En dos años se ha duplicado la tasa de paro, anulando los logros del período de bonanza económica. No tiene parangón en Europa, donde las principales economías han logrado atenuar las pérdidas de empleo y contener el paro activando políticas de reparto del volumen de trabajo (reducción de jornadas, paro parcial, etc.). Entre el cuarto trimestre de 2008 y el tercero de 2009 cada punto de contracción del PIB indujo una caída del empleo de 1,8 puntos porcentuales en España, mientras la destrucción promedio en la UE fue de 0,46 puntos y nula en Alemania. Esta evidencia empírica debería enterrar las obsoletas creencias de la rigidez de las instituciones del mercado de trabajo en España. Como admite el FMI, la flexibilidad del mercado de trabajo es un concepto con múltiples facetas.

La aguda crisis de empleo de esta recesión es la herencia de un modelo de crecimiento intensivo en trabajo, hoy moribundo, y del comportamiento de los empresarios. Pero no es el único coste pagado por los asalariados españoles por el boom especulativo de la pasada década. También han pagado con la pérdida de salarios inducida por la transferencia sistemática de empleos hacia sectores de poco valor añadido y baja productividad y por la política de moderación salarial practicada en las negociaciones colectivas. El resultado de esa dinámica ha sido la pérdida de 4,2 puntos de la parte salarial ajustada en el PIB, al coste de los factores, entre 1998 y 2008 (AMECO, base de datos de la CE). Mientras, la masa salarial se ha contraído progresivamente durante los tres primeros trimestres de 2009. La caída promedio es de 2,7 puntos, según la Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral y la caída prevista por la CE para el conjunto de la UE es de 0,5 puntos. En cambio, el excedente bruto empresarial en nuestro país se ha reducido sólo un 0,8 en el mismo periodo.

En este contexto, abogar por un ajuste de salarios nominales y reales es una idea errónea y contraria a la necesidad de estabilizar la economía y poner freno a la destrucción de empleo. Este mecanismo podría tener efecto si el origen del paro se debiera a un desbordamiento de los costes salariales (o cualquier otro choque de oferta negativo). Pero si la destrucción de empleo tiene su origen en la brutal contracción de la demanda, como ahora, la caída de los salarios impide que los asalariados (la mayoría de la población) se beneficien del frenazo de la inflación y podría desencadenar una espiral deflacionista o, en el mejor de los casos, un ciclo de estancamiento en el que sería ilusorio esperar que se reduzca el paro. Aunque durante 2009 los salarios reales hayan crecido debido al proceso desinflacionista, los nominales han seguido una tendencia bajista: los incrementos salariales medios han ido ralentizándose a lo largo de año y, sobre todo, los de los nuevos convenios son inferiores a los de los revisados. Si esta tendencia se prolongara en la próxima ronda de negociaciones la consecuencia será una depresión suplementaria de la demanda, nefasta para la recuperación del empleo.

El diálogo social es el marco adecuado para que los salarios se conviertan en potentes estabilizadores de la economía, contribuyan a estimular la demanda y a mantener y recuperar el empleo. Además, obviamente, de impedir que todo el peso de la crisis recaiga en los trabajadores, que no son en absoluto responsables de ella. Los acuerdos para la negociación colectiva deberían tener como objetivo proteger y mejorar el nivel adquisitivo de los salarios para impulsar la demanda e invertir la caída del consumo privado. Evitar que los salarios se vean determinados por las fluctuaciones a corto plazo de la economía; y, al contrario, conseguir relacionarlos con las tendencias a medio plazo de la productividad y la inflación. Finalmente, habría que comprometerse a aumentar la cobertura de la negociación colectiva para corregir las presiones, en el ámbito de la empresa, destinadas a reducir salarios frente a la amenaza del paro. Es exactamente ese tipo de política salarial, la que seguirá destruyendo empleo añadiendo más debilidad a la demanda global, pues las reducciones de salarios en situaciones de crisis profunda de la demanda en lugar de resolver el problema del paro lo agravan.


Antonio Ferrer Sais es secretario de Acción Sindical de UGT.


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